I realize that we (the American public) have had access to other Nixon tapes for years, but somehow the sheer volume of the conversations released to the public today seem even more amazing. I’m sure lots of people will (as many news websites already have) focus on the comments like the one to George Bush about how he is “not for women” but the GOP should recruit some pretty ones.* And sure that is amazing, but really didn’t we always know he was a jerk? And maybe by that same token of jerkhood we shouldn’t be so surprised and the rest of the ridiculousness offered up here. There is no sense of humility, which is something I think all good leaders possess a healthy dose of, but in its place an overwhelming tone of self-assurance. These conversations seem to be a dictator who has no concept of rules applying to himself. Power can be a scary thing when limited to one person. If anything I think the tapes make a case for increased attention to the checks and balances, Congress – the branch most closely tied to the people – should have the most power, not one person in a round room.
*As a footnote, I find it fantastic and commendable that George Bush basically blew off the power driven President’s remarks degrading women, way to go 41!
Remember to take time to go vote. Even if you are not crazy about the options, there are plenty of things to make a choice on, so do a little research and cast a vote! It’s the most important thing you can do for our country!
I love statistics. I love polling data, I love comparing polling data. I love demographics. And I love the website Fivethirtyeight. As you probably guessed, the name comes from the electoral college, so it stole my heart from the beginning. Fivethirtyeight takes all of the polls collected each day (CNN, Gallup, AP, etc.) and funnels them into one place. They weight the data based on the poll’s historical track record, sample size, and date to create averages for the simulations. Then, they run the simulation thousands of times, accounting for all the possible various outcomes of each state in relation to other states. So the result is a set of predictions based not just on one poll taken yesterday, but on multiple polls accounting for every states’ various responses. And there are graphs and and tables and charts there to explain the whole process, it is really beautiful. It’s like crack for people who love politics but hate the dog and pony show.
I’m going to try and make this my one post about Sarah Palin.
The Palin/Couric interview just keeps getting more unbelievable. Palin, the self-ascribed reformer who is going to shake up Washington and stop letting the courts legislate from the bench, can’t name any court rulings she disagrees with besides Roe v. Wade? Not even any involving school prayer or creationism in the classroom? I guess I should not even bother asking about women’s issues or trade deals. If Katie Couric’s job was ever on the line, it will never be questioned again, CBS has gotten more attention with this interview than a mullet sporting redneck at a yacht club. I think CBS is milking this for all it is worth by slowly releasing the interview in segments spread over a full week leading up to the VP debate, but why not? It is a legitimate story – the VP candidate has less knowledge about a variety of subjects (general economic theory, US History, names of major newspapers) than any high school senior who is paying attention in class. And why are more people not critcizing John McCain’s judgment in picking this person for his ticket? Shouldn’t we be worried about how his judgment will play out in other areas when he just doesn’t do the homework?
On the other hand, Gov. Palin did great last night! She avoided questions and simply recited what her debate prep had taught her. In fact there is a wonderful chart below to show you how to do it at home. And let’s be honest, saying “shove off” to reporters, completely ignoring their questions, and all the time keeping a smile on your face is quite a skill for a politician to have. Biden answered questions articulately while showing a deep knowledge of most issues, but hey who was more flashy?
This morning I ran across this CNN commentary piece in which the author berates Lifeway for restricting free press. I personally disagree with Lifeway’s stance on the issue of women in ministry and I disagree with the choice to pull things which don’t line up exactly with your theology. (I mean why not leave the magazines out and encourage customers to talk about the SBC debate surrounding women in ministry?) Anyhow my disagreements aside, I don’t think Lifeway is infringing on the freedom of the press by pulling the magazines, in fact I think they are exercising their freedom of religion. They did not restrict Gospel Today from publishing the story, and they didn’t even refuse to sell it – so I’m not sure how the press argument can actually take form. But even if they refused to sell it, they are a privately owned retail company that gets to choose what merchandise to carry. And by choosing to condemn this magazine they were honestly exercising their freedom to display their religion as they see fit.
I think it is amazing that over all we heard about the damn bridge (before Gov. Palin entered the national scene, I’m really not posting this as a swipe at her. Plus, as all of her aides were so damn quick to point out, most of the decisions regarding this were made before she took office, although I find it hard to believe she couldn’t have figured out a way to stop it. I honestly think it didn’t cross her radar, but that image is not what the national campaign really wants in people’s minds right now.) anyhow after all we heard about it, we never noticed that the access road was built? My favorite quote comes in reference to what to do with the road now that it is literally in the middle of nowhere not connected to anything,
But some locals said they’ll find some way to use the road, such as running or bicycle riding.
Damn, gotta love that Alaskan ingenuity. I guess no national reporters were actually in Alaska to figure it out and obviously Alaskan reporters aren’t going to wave a flag and go, “oh yooohooo, over here, we are still spending federal money to build an access road literally to nowhere since its bridge became the posterchild for federal pork.” Which makes sense, because no matter how much everyone loves to critcize pork-barrell spending, not many seem to actually hate it once it is in the local economy creating jobs and improving infrastructures (I’m probably a tad biased, I go to a public university that improves itself via “pork spending”). Anyhow I’m assuming now that we have actually sent national press up to research Gov. Palin, one of them was like, “Hey why the hell you guys got an access road on that island?”
I was somewhat surprised to see Karl Rove’s recent comments on the tone of the current campaigns. He said that neither campaign could pass the 100 percent truth test with they current ads. So yeah, we are all shocked that Karl Rove is telling anyone that their campaign strategies are below the belt, but I am even more shocked that he was talking about McCain and Obama. I am not shocked that Obama’s team immediately jumped on with the viciousness of a 6 year old at a free ice cream stand, because that is just politics as usual.
What really got me in the whole thing was a comment posted on the CNN newstory. After 60 comments of people predictably defending their candidates use of the “truth” in TV ads, one McCain supporter just stated flatly, “Who cares. It’s working and Obama is on the way down for the count. McCain/Palin 08′ ” I was dumbfounded, I mean I had always assumed that people really believed that their candidate was telling the truth, but no – this guy could care less what McCain had to lie about to win the election, as long as he won.
I loved politics. yeap, that is past tense. As an elementary school kid, I ate up the units on government and American history. As a middle schooler, I choose to read books about politics. As a high schooler, I knew where every candidate stood on certain issues even though I had years to go until I could vote. As a college student I majored in History and Political Science. And now I have a deep urge to change the channel whenever political coverage is up next. Like everyone else I’m sick of the media making huge headlines out of things that I don’t think should be a footnote in someone’s political decisions. I don’t think Gov. Palin’s gender matters at all in the political discussion. I don’t only want to not hear the attacks, I also don’t want to listen to the McCain camp whine the attacks, that is also dealing with it, giving the media a reason to keep it going.
But it is not the media alone that has caused this problem, the people have demanded shitty coverage. People don’t care so much about learning how Sen. Obama’s views on energy are honestly going to affect day to day life or the sustainability of our society in the long run the way. People don’t care about learning how Sen. McCain’s policies on corporate taxes affect the small businesses in America. but people will click thousands of times on a headline dealing with the latest drama and mudslinging. it makes me sad, it cheapens democracy.
Anyhow I like this WSJ storybecause of the quote from Donn Teske who is the President of the Kansas Farmer Union.
“If any farmer in the Plains States looked at McCain’s voting record on ag issues,” Mr. Teske says, “no one would vote for him.”
It made me happy to see a citizen who honestly looked at both canidate’s records on the area of policy that would matter the most to him, and then make an informed decision, regardless of the hundreds of speeches that may claim differently or the talking heads that lift up either candidate as a friend to the working class.
I have a friend from college named Zach who is convinced that someday he will hit the jackpot with his stand-up comedy, or his writing, or just literally hit the jackpot in the lottery. Anyhow one of his favorite activities is to ask people how they would spend a couple of million dollars to make the world a better place. This way once he gets the money he knows exactly who to hand it out to and the world can be on its way to a better day. I personally never had a good answer, I mean I could come up with a few good ideas but nothing fantastic.
This weekend a conversation came up with my family about the birthrates (actually not the birthrates, because that isn’t the important number for re-population) it was about the fertility rates in developed countries. In the last few years the US has seen this rise back up to the magic number of 2.1 (the perfect rate at which each woman needs to reproduce in order to keep a population stable). It hit an all time low in the late 70s with the introduction of birth control, abortion, rising numbers of college grads, and the leftover effects of Vietnam. The rates in most other developed nations, except for France (which much like the US has seen its rate rise because of the rise in immigration) anyhow the other developed nations are nowhere near the magic number, in fact noticeable countries like Japan and Italy are around 1.25 and 1.3. At that rate their nations are in for some serious trouble in 20 years, with vacant jobs and an aging population. However the world’s population is nowhere near going extinct yet, in less developed nations the average is near 3.0 and in many countries is over 6.0. There is a direct connection between the increasing wealth and decreasing fertility rates. So yeah it’s a complex subject, and in a perfect world Europe would bring its rate up a bit and Africa would take its rate down a smudge. But until that happens wouldn’t it be nice if there was an easier way to distribute the population?
Countries with high fertility rates also have some of the toughest foreign adoption policies. The US Dept of State lists only 5 adoptions from 2001 to 2005 from Mali (the country with the highest fertility rate) and 0 adoptions from Niger (the second highest fertility rate). While China, a country with a fertility rate lower than the sustainable 2.1, has allowed 32,609 adoptions to the US during that same time period.
So I think if Zach gave me a couple of million dollars, I would set up an endowment that would fund a couple things. The first would be lobbyists groups not only in Washington, D.C. but in every nation (developed and developing) to work on laws to facilitate foreign adoptions and partnerships pairing nations with inverse fertility rates. The endowment would also provide grants to families interested in foreign adoptions but unable to afford the huge bills racked up from legal services, adoption fees, and time away from work often required of foreign adoptions.
I would also set up a separate fund to send my nephews to summer camp every year, but that is unrelated to the population situation.
“This race is between a New York senator who was born in Illinois and an Illinois senator who was apparently born in a manager.” – Sen. Mitch McConnell, (R) current Senate Minority Leader
As many of you know, I have been hesitant to support either of the front runners for the Democratic nomination for President. Obviously it is hard after your first choice drops, but I feel like most other Edwards voters have moved on. Not me. In some vacuum universe where neither option had any political baggage, Sen. Clinton would be the better candidate every time. I think with the exception of the last two debates she has mopped the floor with Sen. Obama concerning policy issues at their debates. And even in the last two, I think she is still the stronger candidate with the issues on the table. With that said, he has opened a can of whoop-ass on her concerning stage presence and general personality in the last two(which is hard to do when both of them sit up there looking like smug Cheshire cats). However, we don’t live in a political vacuum and I don’t think Sen. Clinton has a shot in hell at winning the general election and unifying the nation, anyone that tells you different is simply living in a dream world.
One of the most talked about exchanges from the debate in Austin last week started with Sen. Obama attacking Sen. Clinton’s recent use of the phrase, “Let’s get real.” He asked her if the implication was that his supporters were “delusional?” He stated that “the thinking is that [his supporters] had been duped.” Because it was in a debate and the statements were made in a rhetorical/joking manner, there was no way for Sen. Clinton to respond. But I wish she could have said, “Yes I think some of your supporters have been duped. Not the whole 20 million, but some of them.” Because let’s be honest, (more…)
