Graphs and tables and charts! Oh, my!

I love statistics. I love polling data, I love comparing polling data. I love demographics. And I love the website Fivethirtyeight. As you probably guessed, the name comes from the electoral college, so it stole my heart from the beginning. Fivethirtyeight takes all of the polls collected each day (CNN, Gallup, AP, etc.) and funnels them into one place. They weight the data based on the poll’s historical track record, sample size, and date to create averages for the simulations. Then, they run the simulation thousands of times, accounting for all the possible various outcomes of each state in relation to other states. So the result is a set of predictions based not just on one poll taken yesterday, but on multiple polls accounting for every states’ various responses.  And there are graphs and and tables and charts there to explain the whole process, it is really beautiful. It’s like crack for people who love politics but hate the dog and pony show.

are you kidding me?

I’m going to try and make this my one post about Sarah Palin.

The Palin/Couric interview just keeps getting more unbelievable. Palin, the self-ascribed reformer who is going to shake up Washington and stop letting the courts legislate from the bench, can’t name any court rulings she disagrees with besides Roe v. Wade? Not even any involving school prayer or creationism in the classroom? I guess I should not even bother asking about women’s issues or trade deals. If Katie Couric’s job was ever on the line, it will never be questioned again, CBS has gotten more attention with this interview than a mullet sporting redneck at a yacht club. I think CBS is milking this for all it is worth by slowly releasing the interview in segments spread over a full week leading up to the VP debate, but why not? It is a legitimate story – the VP candidate has less knowledge about a variety of subjects (general economic theory, US History, names of major newspapers) than any high school senior who is paying attention in class. And why are more people not critcizing John McCain’s judgment in picking this person for his ticket? Shouldn’t we be worried about how his judgment will play out in other areas when he just doesn’t do the homework?

On the other hand, Gov.  Palin did great last night! She avoided questions and simply recited what her debate prep had taught her. In fact there is a wonderful chart  below to show you how to do it at home. And let’s be honest, saying “shove off” to reporters, completely ignoring their questions, and all the time keeping a smile on your face is quite a skill for a politician to have. Biden answered questions articulately while showing a deep knowledge of most issues, but hey who was more flashy?

church shopping

Most of this post is copied from an email I wrote to some friends a few weeks ago. Just now I started to write a post about my new church in Oxford, but realized I should first include the description of my first visit there.

I went church shopping this morning (I’m normally against calling it church shopping, but I really think it is the appropriate term for what happened.) See, one of my friends had the brilliant idea that rather than wasting a month visiting every church in town, I could consolidate and try to hit more than one a day, which is extraordinarily easy in oxford (remember I’m living in a faulkner novel or short story, I haven’t decided yet, I guess it depends on how funny vs. tragic this whole experience ends up being). Anyhow it’s easy to church shop in Oxford because we have a town square ~ with the courthouse and important restaurants, bars, stores, etc. ~ then one block off the square is what I am going to affectionately refer to as the church district, because I kid you not, the main baptist, methodist, episcopal, catholic, and presbyterian churches are all located side by side, and have been since 1837. So my plan this morning was to hit up the presbyterian 8:30 service, then depending on how it went stay for sunday school or duck into a nearby bakery for coffee and the morning paper, then make it to the methodist church for the 11 oclock service.
 
The presbyterian church was a disaster. The sanctuary was built in 1881, and unlike some buildings that are old, this one was not pretty. It was clearly the best efforts of a community recovering from losing a civil war. They have repainted it a few times on the inside and installed carpet, etc. but it had that musty smell that you normally encounter in small log cabins at historic sites like Lincoln’s birthplace. And that is just not a smell i’m looking for in a lively “God is real to us” kind of congregation. Now I’m not just judging on the smell, but it didn’t bode well. It also had that awkward light blue painted ceiling that i think was really popular in churches in 1967. Anyhow the sermon was about as deep as the devotionals i was leading as a 5th grader and there were no young people in sight. It just felt like a random room of middle-aged to old-people going through some obligatory sunday morning ritual just like their coffee and poop on every other day. And maybe I caught it on a bad day, but still.
 
So needless to say, I jumped off of their church property at the first opportunity, which wasn’t easy because I had to walk 30 yards across their cobblestone courtyard to reach the gate and I was in heels, not fun. Anyhow I opted for the bakery for the next hour. which was amazing. They had good coffee and pastries (really i only had a small jam filled shortbread thing, but everything else looked good). It wasn’t the normal bakery feel, in fact the closest atmosphere i could compare it to would be Common Grounds in Waco, but not so “college-indie-rock-i-only-use-macs.” Anyhow i sat at the bar and read and made friends with a girl named Tamera, who was there reading and drinking tea (because she was sick) she was a bit of talker, but still nice.
 
Moving on, the methodist church was good. not “pinch myself is this real” the way Calvary was the first day i walked in and heard Julie preach, but it was still nice.
       a) gorgeous building, which doesn’t really matter, but if I get bored in sermons I find that if I’m in a pretty building (and stainedglass is a key to this) that I still spend the time focusing on god, so in a way the building really is important for me personally in a sunday worship environment. (obviously that wasn’t the case in Waco, but i do love Calvary’s stained glass over the baptistry).
       b) the choir was wearing kick-ass robes, kind of like monk robes instead of choir robes, this is similar to the beauty in first point but I still wanted to mention it.
       c) the preacher, who was an associate pastor so he probably doesn’t preach everyweek – which means I still need to hear the main guy to make any big decisions – anyhow the preacher started off with, “may the words of my heart . . .” which although I associate with Calvary, I also associate with college because we said it in unison at the end of every chapel.
       d) the sermon was good, completely different from Julie’s style, a bit more dry and academicy as you would expect at a methodist church, but it was good. bringing in new ideas, quoting multiple sources, discussing options for how to approach the scripture. completely blew away the presbyterian sermon.
       e) the song of response was “O Sacred Head”, done acapella. which is one of my favorites.

Since the Sunday described above I have been going to the methodist church on a regular basis, I’ve even been to sunday school a few times. So at some point in the next few weeks I’ll write more about the journey of learning about and becoming a part of a new church.

Oh and I’ve decided that the picture at the top of the blog is going to change somewhat randomly, at times it will tie in with the recent posts (such as today with a post about church the picture is of people standing outside of my great-grandparents’ church in the 1960s), but other times it will just be something pretty.